Their most recent update is the 2005 revision, which is 210 pages long (although most of that are tables). I pulled out the interesting statements (and bolding the VERY interesting ones)
and charts, but first here is the short
Urbanization was a developed world phenomenon in the 19th century, and while it will still continue in the developed world, the bulk of it will happen in the developing world where people are migrating to urban areas where access to basic services are better and economic development is more dynamic. Governments, especially in less developed regions, are voicing concerns over this mass migration and have been / may be taking proactive steps to minimize/reverse urbanization.
Pull outs:
pg. 15
"Because urbanization tends to rise as the level of development increases and socio-economic development is expected to continue in all countries, the levels of urbanization are generally projected to rise in the future. Thus, by 2030 the less developed regions are expected to have 56 per cent of their population living in urban areas, nearly triple the proportion they had in 1950 (18 per cent). In more developed regions the proportion urban is projected to reach 81 per cent by 2030."
"Despite their lower levels of urbanization, less developed regions have more than double the number of urban dwellers than the more developed regions (2.3 billion vs. 0.9 billion)... By 2030 the urban population in the less developed regions is projected to be nearly four times as large as that in the more developed regions (3.9 billion vs. 1 billion people)."
"The more developed regions differ from the less developed regions also with regard to the number of mega-cities, that is, cities with 10 million residents or more. In 2005, among the 20 mega-cities in the world, 15 were located in the less developed regions and by 2015, 17 of the 22 mega-cities projected to exist will be in today’s developing countries."
pg. 16
"During the next few decades the urban areas of the less developed regions are projected to absorb all the population growth expected worldwide."
"Still, the urban poor in the less developed regions often fare better than the average rural resident with respect to access to basic services, such as drinking water, sanitation, electricity or educational facilities (National Research Council, 2003).13 Thus, it is simplistic to view urbanization in developing countries as a phenomenon with mainly negative consequences. In fact, the concentration of people in cities is generally a response to the concentration of the most dynamic economic activities in urban centres. Such a concentration often produces economies of scale and leads to social and economic benefits of various kinds, including the technological development that is crucial to maintain the development momentum. The health advantages of cities are another example of such benefits, with urban dwellers often enjoying higher quality and more accessible health services than rural dwellers. Cities are also at the forefront of political and cultural change. Given their concentrated political power, trade and cultural activity, cities are places where new ideas and products emerge and from which they spread. Often, the development of rural areas is inextricably tied to the dynamism of the urban centres to which they are linked. Cities are therefore engines of economic, social, political and cultural change. Urbanization can thus be viewed as an indicator of development, with higher urban levels generally associated with more industrialized and technologically advanced economies."
pg. 17
"Although the world is urbanizing rapidly, the number of rural dwellers is high and still growing. However, as of 2019 the rural population is projected to decline slowly. Consequently, the number of rural dwellers in 2030 is expected to be slightly lower than that in 2005 (3.3 billion). In 2005, 71 per cent of all rural dwellers lived in Asia, primarily in India, China, Indonesia and Bangladesh, in order of rural population size."
"Urbanization is very far advanced in the more developed regions where in 2005 almost threequarters (74 per cent) of the population lived in urban settlements. The proportion urban in the more developed regions is projected to increase to 81 per cent by 2030. In the less developed regions, the equivalent proportion was 43 per cent in 2005 and is projected to rise to 56 per cent by 2030."
"Africa and Asia were the least urbanized areas in the world in 2005 (38 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively). A combination of a large starting population and a projected rate of urban population growth that remains relatively high over the next 25 years results in a marked increase of the urban populations of both continents. By 2030, Asia will rank first and Africa second in terms of the number of urban dwellers. Indeed, in 2030, almost 7 out of every 10 urban residents in the world will be living in Africa or Asia. The proportion urban is projected to reach 54 per cent in Asia and 51 per cent in Africa by 2030."
pg. 18
"The populations of mega-cities, being large, tend to grow less rapidly than other urban centres. Among the 20 mega-cities in existence in 2005, 13 had populations that grew by less than the average annual growth rate of the world’s urban population during 1975-2005 (2.4 per cent). Only seven of the 20 mega-cities grew faster. Thus, Dhaka in Bangladesh and Lagos in Nigeria each grew by 5.8 per cent annually; Delhi in India by 4.1 per cent; Karachi in Pakistan by 3.6 per cent; Jakarta in Indonesia by 3.4 per cent; Mumbai (Bombay) in India by 3.1 per cent; and Manila in the Philippines by 2.5 per cent. For the future, six of the 22 mega-cities projected to exist in 2015 are projected to grow by more than 1.9 per cent per year, the average annual growth rate projected for the global urban population during 2005-2015. These cities are: Lagos in Nigeria, Dhaka in Bangladesh, Karachi in Pakistan, Jakarta in Indonesia, Guangzhou in China and Delhi in India, in order of their annual growth rates."
"Small cities, that is, those with a population of fewer than 500,000 people, were the place of residence of about 51 per cent of all urban dwellers in the world in 2005. Thus, the majority of urban dwellers lived in fairly small urban settlements."
"The spatial distribution of population has always figured prominently on the policy agenda of Governments. The Governments of developing countries have often expressed concern about being unable to provide basic services for their rapidly growing urban populations, including safe drinking water, sanitation, affordable housing and public transportation. Measures used to shape the spatial distribution of the population have included policies to reduce migration to urban agglomerations by imposing internal migration controls; the creation of new centres of economic growth by, for instance, moving the national capital to a new location; incentives for businesses and industry to locate in medium-sized cities, and the development of infrastructure and services in smaller or medium-sized cities to attract businesses and migrants alike."
pg. 23
pg. 26
pg. 28
pg.29
pg. 36
"In the future, the growth of the major mega-cities is projected to slow down, both in more developed regions as well as less developed regions. However, there will be more variation in growth rates in less developed regions. It is anticipated that Mumbai (Bombay) and Delhi will be growing faster than Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico City) and Sao Paulo. Both Tokyo and New York-Newark will experience very low population growth, resulting in the virtual stagnation of their population size."
pg.37
pg. 38
"In 2005, half the Governments in the world expressed a strong desire to modify the spatial distribution of its population. This concern was especially pronounced in less developed regions where policies to lower inmigration into urban agglomerations were more common than in more developed regions."
"In many developing countries, policies aimed at redistributing the population try to reduce or even reverse rural-urban migration trends. Governments in less developed countries are more likely to implement policies to reduce migration to urban agglomerations than countries in more developed regions."
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