JR Tokai to build maglev train system at own expense

First the article, then the discussion.
http://www.japantoday.com/jp/news/423626

NAGOYA — Central Japan Railway Co (JR Tokai) said Tuesday it will build at its own expense a magnetically levitated train system between the Tokyo metropolitan area and the Chukyo region, with Nagoya at the center, at an estimated cost of 5.1 trillion yen. JR Tokai plans to begin operating the system in 2025.

A maglev train floats slightly above the guideway on a magnetic field. A three-car manned maglev train reached a top speed of 581 kilometers per hour, the highest speed ever recorded, during a test run conducted in 2003 by JR Tokai and the government-affiliated Railway Technical Research Institute.

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First, 5.1 trillion yen is about $47 billion dollars. Just as a reference point Boing 747 is about $250-300 million dollars, so we're looking at approximately 150 Boing 747s.

Now for some fun with number. The fastest bullet train in Japan goes about 300 km/hr, and connect Tokyo to Osaka in 2hrs 30 minutes. Assuming the maglev can go 600 km/hr (improving hopefully from their 2003 benchmark), this will now connect Tokyo to Osaka in 1hr 25 minutes, which is less than the total time you have to spend in an airport checking in and picking up your luggage.

I hear anecdotal references in Japan that it takes about the same amount of time taking the bullet train to Osaka (from Tokyo) as it does taking a flight. Any benefit from faster flying is negated by the time spent at the airport and time it takes to reach city center (and both Osaka and Tokyo airports are fairly close to center). Further more, the price is also similar: the fastest bullet train costs about 14,000 yen while a seat on a flight costs 20,000 yen, but 13,000 if you book in advance.

So if in the future, trains do travel at 600 km/hr, at what distance is it faster to fly than ride the train?

Assuming:
For flying
60 minutes to check-in
20 minutes to check-out (depends if you have more than carry-ons)
30 minutes each between the airport and city center
900 km/hr for Boeing 747

For maglev
600 km/hr

distance / 600 = distance / 900 + (60+20+30*2)/60

distance = 4200km

What this means is that for distances over 4200 km, it's faster to take a train than going to the airport, checking in, boarding your flight, exiting your flight, getting your luggage, going into the city center.

Just as a reference point, San Francisco to New York is about 4600 km.

If you run the same calculation with 300 km/hr (speed of current bullet trains), you get 1050km. Even today, if there was a bullet train connecting central San Francisco to Los Angeles, it would be faster to take that than flying (SF to LA is about 620 km, so it would take a little over 2 hours).

A lot of rough assumptions (especially assuming planes won't increase in speed and airport check-in won't become more efficient) and very back of the envelope calculations, but food for thought. With the price of gas increasing, are trains the ways to go?