Forecast Repository Draft 1

Here is the first draft of the forecast repository, and probably a good spot for feedback. For now, I'm putting it in the blog as a way of documenting it, but we should think about what the final manifestation should be. A simple web page? A collection on Delicious with the appropriate tags?

I limited my search to future oriented sites, not necessarily tools for forecasting. Excluded are a plethora of sites that help create a sense of the past changes (like newspaper repositories) or strategy consultancies that focus on the future (don't all of them?).

For each site, I've written (or borrowed) a short description that should give the reader an expectation of what to find there. I'm also trying a rough taxonomy although I'm not quite sure if that is right.


- Forecast/Futurist Organizations

International Institute of Forecasters
http://www.forecasters.org/
"The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), a non-profit organization founded in 1981, is dedicated to developing and furthering the generation, distribution, and use of knowledge on forecasting."

Academic institution that publishes the International Journal of Forecasting and organizes conferences. The site includes links to other foresight institutions and some academic papers.

European Forecasting Network
http://www.efn.uni-bocconi.it/
"The EFN was created to provide a critical analysis of the current economic situation in the Euro area, short-term forecasts of the main macroeconomic and financial variables, policy advice, and in-depth study of topics of particular relevance for the working of the EMU."

The network is a collection of various European University institutions and produces quarterly reports that "include an overview of the current situation and a critical analysis of the main recent economic and political events, together with short-term forecasts of the main macroeconomic and financial variables."

McKinsey Global Institute
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/
"TThe McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), founded in 1990, is McKinsey & Company's economics research arm. Its primary purpose is to undertake original research and develop substantive points of view on critical economic issues facing businesses and governments around the world. MGI's research is funded by the partners of McKinsey and not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution."

The site contains numerous econometric forecasts of the future in various categories such as Energy Markets, Health Care, and Consumer Demand and Demographics.

Acceleration Studies Foundation
http://accelerating.org/
"The Acceleration Studies Foundation (ASF) is a nonprofit community of approximately sixty board members, associates and advisers, and a subscriber network of 3,100 executives, technologists, systems theorists, and futurists. ASF explores the accelerating development of special domains in science and technology, and examines their impact on business and society. In particular, we consider longstanding accelerating scientific and technological trends in computation, communication, storage, digitization, simulation, sensing, energy density, energy efficiency, miniaturization, autonomy, and others, and the way these developmental trends interact with business and social agendas. We seek to use this knowledge in service of greater personal, executive, and professional development."

The group hosts get togethers and conferences, puts out monthly newsletters, and publishes forecast articles on certain technological topics.

World Future Society
http://www.wfs.org/
"The World Future Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future."

The society also runs the magazine "The Futurist" and publishes the Top 10 Forecasts from each year.

The Institute For The Future
http://www.iftf.org/
“The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is an independent, nonprofit research group with nearly 40 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. We provide insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Our research spans a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from health and health care to technology, the workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the Future is located in Palo Alto, CA.”

The IFTF program includes the annual Ten-Year Forecasts, Technology Horizons, and Health Horizons. The website also contains a blog but the publications are for members only.

The Long Now Foundation
http://www.longnow.org/
“The Long Now Foundation hopes to provide counterpoint to today's ‘faster/cheaper’ mind set and promote ‘slower/better’ thinking. We hope to creatively foster responsibility in the framework of the next 10,000 years.”

The Long Now Foundation operates several projects such as the 10,000 Year Clock Project, construction of a monument scale, multi-millennial, all mechanical clock. They also run Long Bets, a website where people can make predictions of the future and challenge other people’s predictions. Real money is bet but the winning is donated to charity chosen by the winner.

Resources for the Future
http://www.rff.org/
“RFF is a nonprofit and nonpartisan organization that conducts independent research – rooted primarily in economics and other social sciences – on environmental, energy, and natural resource issues.”

The in-depth and highly scientific publications are available online.


- Prediction Markets

Intrade Prediction Markets
http://www.intrade.com
Online prediction market where users can buy future predictions with real money. Most of the topics relate to politics or the financial market, but there are some outlier topics in technology and weather. The market data has been used for studies in major universities and the website has been featured in many publications.

hubdub
http://www.hubdub.com
"Hubdub is a news prediction game that lets you find out how well you really know the news! Compete at predicting the outcomes of real running news stories and see how many Hubdub dollars your news knowledge can make you..."

Online prediction market game where the users create the questions and bet on them. Very diverse topics from sports to politics to science and technology. Users can buy predictions and sell them before the question is resolved (value of the prediction changes depending on how many users buy into that prediction). The game only uses fake money and is free for everyone to play.


- Repositories

Bookmarks tagged futurism on Delicious
http://delicious.com/popular/futurism
Over 10,000 bookmarks.

Websites tagged Futurism on Stumble Upon
http://www.stumbleupon.com/tag/futurism/
Not very extensive as of 5SEP08.

- Databases

U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.html
The International Data Base contains past, present, and future demographic data for 226 countries and areas of the world. Of particular interest may be the Population Pyramids from the past and projected into the future.

Forecasting Principles
http://forecastingprinciples.com/
"The Forecasting Principles site summarizes all useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators. (Those who might want to challenge this are invited to submit missing information.) This knowledge is provided as principles (guidelines, prescriptions, rules, conditions, action statements, or advice about what to do in given situations)."

"The Forecasting Principles site was sponsored by the Marketing Department of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania for the first nine years. The International Institute of Forecasters has been a sponsor since July 2006."

The site is very scientific and academic, and contains links to academic papers as well as a Methodology Tree and a Selection Tree. There is an extensive FAQ section on forecasting and a searchable dictionary of forecasting terms.

Applied Forecasting
http://www.appliedforecasting.com/index.php
"Applied Forecasting is a free and independent portal for the Forecasting community. The focus is to serve researchers, practitioners and students around the world with up to date information and facilitating online interaction."

The website contains: The Latest Forecasting News (presented in a blog format), Upcoming Forecasting Events Calendar, Links to Forecasting Web Sites, and rarely used Forum section. Registered users can submit news articles and add upcoming events.


- Other

News of Future
http://www.newsoffuture.com/
A blog style future prediction site where predictions are presented in short news articles from the future. The predictions are set between 2020 and 2050 and they all contain arguments (some with sources) and questions that arise from the predicion. Readers can submit predictions, some of which will be published as future news.

Paleo-Future Blog
http://www.paleofuture.com/
The Paleo-Futures blog is a collection of past depictions of futures in magazine, news article, and video format. The site is run by Matt Novak and was part of PC Magazines "Our 100 Favorite Blogs."

Futurist Movies
http://www.futuristmovies.com/
A movie review site by futurist Josh Calder focusing on the futurism of movies. The movies are rated by their plausibility, entertainment, and futurism (how thoughtful and coherent is the future depicted). For a select few movies, there are in depth discussions on the summary, future elements, and interesting depictions.

Future For All
http://www.futureforall.org/
A non-expert visions of the future.

“Future For All is my personal web site about future technology. I am not an expert on science, technology or the future. However, it does not take an authority to envision how nanotechnology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence and other technologies could radically change our world.”

Various technology oriented topics such as Robotics, Transportation, and Electronics are covered. The website has good links to concept designs and potential game changing products and technologies.

Mapping the Future
http://mappingthefuture.csis.org/imagemap.shtml
“Mapping the Future was developed in 2007 by the Global Strategy Institute at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The CSIS Global Strategy Institute is dedicated to promoting long-range thinking about the big global issues that loom before us. To this end, we offer a ‘map of the future’ for the years 2008 through 2012. No matter the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections in November, public and private sector leaders across the country (and the globe) will have to contend with certain inevitable events, unstoppable trends, and predictable developments over the next four to five years. Our goal is to paint a picture of what the landscape will look like when the new president takes office and to identify the major signposts we can anticipate. We have grouped these coming events into seven categories: science and technology; politics; major conferences; forecasts; construction; sporting and culture; and important dates.”

Most of the points on the map are announced events and anniversaries. Some of the elements are numeric forecast milestones (i.e. population). All declarations come with a brief explanation and a link for further information.

Future Wiki
http://future.wikia.com/
The Future Wiki is a collection of community-edited scenarios and predictions of the future. Certain topics such as Transportation and Education are covered in depth while a good portion of the content is future based science fiction. Future Wiki is run by Wikia which is also the parent organization of Wikipedia.